EnDev phase-out country study; Mini-grid component in Indonesia

Energising Development (EnDev) conducts independent evaluations of its phase-out countries, both at the moment of exit and two-years after closing. This way, EnDev evaluates the sustainability and impact of its activities, as well as market development.

The most recent study is an evaluation of EnDev’s mini-grid component in Indonesia (EnDev-ID). EnDev contracted Edburgh consultants and Danish Energy Management to conduct the exit evaluation. The short-term desk-based evaluation was conducted from March to August 2021. Through document analysis and stakeholder interviews, an overview of the status of the mini-grid sector after the phasing out of the EnDev mini-grid component in 2019 was provided.

The key evaluation questions of the study were:

1. What has been the influence of EnDev’s intervention on sector development?
2. To what extent are local institutions ready (and have the capacity) to take over and contribute to developing a sustainable energy market?
3. What are the lessons learnt?

Key findings were that even though the mini-grid sector is currently stagnant, EnDev’s intervention has had a positive impact and that basis for improved sustainability is present. EnDev knowledge products remain accessible online for all to use. This includes the lesson learnt and recommendations for mini-grid projects globally. The independent evaluators conclude that EnDev has been a relevant supplement to the existing mini-grid promotion in Indonesia until 2018, when the Ministry of Energy implemented a new strategy. In terms of sustainability, the vast majority of mini-grids in Indonesia cannot cover long-term costs for operation and maintenance themselves and access to spare parts is a challenge in remote locations. However, the basis for improved sustainability of the mini-grid sector is present.

Based on the findings and conclusion from Indonesia, the evaluators propose three recommendations for mini-grid components in other countries:

• Improve the methodology for monitoring the impact of capacity-building activities.
• Improve the vocabulary for policy impacts and transformative changes.
• Optimising person-carried impacts in programme design and planning.